Job creation, job destruction and voting behavior in Poland

Abstract

This paper analyzes how job creation and job destruction affected voting in the Polish 1997 and 2001 parliamentary elections. We link the votes for the left-wing party to the unemployment rate and the job creation and destruction rates in a constituency, and show that the job destruction rate and unemployment rate had a positive effect on the votes for the SLD, while the job creation rate had a negative effect. We then look at the effect of the change in job creation and job destruction rates on the change in the votes for individual candidates. We find that incumbents from the former right-wing coalition received fewer votes if excess job reallocation had increased in their constituency. Job flows therefore significantly affected voting and the balance between positive and negative effects of reforms to a large extent determined the political outcome.