Job and population location choices and economic scale as effects of high speed rail: Simulation analysis of Shinkansen in Kyushu, Japan

Abstract

Establishing transportation infrastructure stimulates economic activity. It also effects on economic disparities between regions. Accordingly, researches have been carried out on the economic effects of establishing transportation infrastructure. On one hand, establishing transportation infrastructure could be the important means for correcting disparities. Conversely, establishing transportation has the potential to bring about greater economic inequality between regions. This study created an inter-regional computational general equilibrium model to analyze the effect of establishing high speed rail (HSR) on the regional economy. A simulation analysis is performed by applying the model to the opening of Kyushu HSR. In base scenario with one route operation, economic scale grew in each region and discrepancies widened between prefectures. While we observed a growth for population, jobs, and economic scale in the regions with improved access, a decline in the population in other prefectures was noticed. In the case of jobs and economic scale, growth is observed in every prefecture. However as the degree of such growth was small, disparities widened. By establishing HSR over a wider area, the degree of growth disparity weakened, and growth approached a proportional pattern. The hypothetical scenarios, which consider the non-availability of the transfer of HSR between Kyushu and outside Kyushu are also simulated.