JMA's regional atmospheric transport model calculations for the WMO technical task team on meteorological analyses for Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

Abstract

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) convened a small technical task team of experts to produce a set of meteorological analyses to drive atmospheric transport, dispersion and deposition models (ATDMs) for the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation's assessment of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (DNPP) accident. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) collaborated with the WMO task team as the regional specialized meteorological center of the country where the accident occurred, and provided its operational 5-km resolution mesoscale (MESO) analysis and its 1-km resolution radar/rain gauge-analyzed precipitation (RAP) data. The JMA's mesoscale tracer transport model was modified to a regional ATDM for radionuclides (RATM), which included newly implemented algorithms for dry deposition, wet scavenging, and gravitational settling of radionuclide aerosol particles.Preliminary and revised calculations of the JMA-RATM were conducted according to the task team's protocol. Verification against Cesium 137 (137Cs) deposition measurements and observed air concentration time series showed that the performance of RATM with MESO data was significantly improved by the revisions to the model. The use of RAP data improved the 137Cs deposition pattern but not the time series of air concentrations at Tokai-mura compared with calculations just using the MESO data.Sensitivity tests of some of the more uncertain parameters were conducted to determine their impacts on ATDM calculations, and the dispersion and deposition of radionuclides on 15 March 2011, the period of some of the largest emissions and deposition to the land areas of Japan. The area with high deposition in the northwest of Fukushima DNPP and the hotspot in the central part of Fukushima prefecture were primarily formed by wet scavenging influenced by the orographic effect of the mountainous area in the west of the Fukushima prefecture.