Abstract
This paper discusses two important issues concerning the use of Joint Implementation (JI) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol: — uncertainty in estimates of reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; and — contribution to and assessment of sustainable development. The analysis is based on assessments of several operational projects which reduce GHG emissions in countries in transition and developing countries. The projects are concentrated in the energy sector. When considering uncertainty in the estimates of GHG emissions reduction from JI/CDM projects, there are two main issues: construction of the baseline and accuracy of monitoring. Analysis across a range of project types led to estimates of baseline uncertainty which vary from 25% to 60%. Recommendations are made for measures to manage the uncertainty. In terms of contribution to sustainable development, the paper reports analysis of the case study projects in this context and makes recommendations for project aspects which are positive in this respect.
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