Japan's Nuclear Option: Its Possibilities and Limitations

Abstract

This study seeks to illuminate the possibility of Japan's nuclear option in the changing context of both domestic and international politics in the Post‐Cold War era.Currently, it may be very difficult for Japan to choose a nuclear option considering the domestic political context. The majority of the Japanese people still possess a strong anti‐nuclear sentiment because of the experience of nuclear bombing that took place in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Those who advocate Japan's nuclear armament have also not become a major political force in Japanese politics. Japan has also established several legal and institutional mechanisms that prohibit Japan from becoming a nuclear power.However, international crises that could severely damage Japan's national security and vital interests, would bring about major changes in Japan's domestic political context that has so far successfully constrained Japan's move toward nuclear armament. These international crises may include mounting nuclear and military threats from neighboring countries, failure of the international nuclear nonproliferation regime, and weakening or breakdown of the U.S.‐Japan security alliance. Under these international crises, the Japanese people could feel a sense of severe insecurity and they might agree to the nuclear option for the sake of national security.It seems that, although Japan will not take a direct course to go nuclear in the near future due to the domestic political constraints, it will continue to keep a nuclear option open, which makes it possible for Japan to possess nuclear weapons when domestic and international circumstances dictate to do so.