Japanese Oak Wilt Disease decreased survival probability and mean lifetime of tree populations in a secondary natural forest

Abstract

ABSTRACT The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of Japanese Oak Wilt Disease on mortality in a tree population. The study site was the permanent plot of 0.26 ha established in the secondary forest dominated by Abies firma, Tsuga sieboldii and Quercus serrata at the University of Tokyo Chiba Forest in the southeastern part of the Boso peninsula, Japan. We set the two observation periods of 1999–2008 and 2009–2021, and Japanese Oak Wilt Disease invaded the study site in the middle of the second period. We collected tree age data for both alive and dead trees in the two periods based on semi-nondestructive drilling measurements for trees using a RESISTOGRAPH. Survival analyses were conducted on the second-period data, and the demographic metrics such as mortality ratios and mean lifetimes were compared between the two periods. The results showed that: the mortality ratio of the tree population at old ages, where oaks (Quercus serrata) concentrated in their age distribution, significantly increased; the effect of the oak group was significant on mortality in the tree population; the hazard for the oak group was 24 times the hazard for the other tree species group; the survival curve reflected the mass mortality in oaks at old ages, which led to the decrease of mean lifetime less than half. Consequently, it was implied that the effects of Japanese Oak Wilt Disease impacted the demographic metrics of oak trees.