Abstract
The LDP predominant party system ended in 1993. The big question now is whether an effective opposition party can be created or whether the LDP will find a way to re-establish predominance. One key will be gubernatorial elections. Governors sit at the pivot between national and local politics. All parties except the Communists strive to be part of the gubernatorial coalition because only then can they influence distributive political decisions. Most gubernatorial elections are thus noncompetitive. Recent gubernatorial elections, however, have given some hope to those who would create an alternative to the LDP. Even if an anti-LDP candidate wins, he will be tempted to return to the LDP fold, or at least remain neutral in national politics. Recent gubernatorial elections in Aomori illustrate these pressures and complexities. Aomori was one of three prefectures where the New Frontier Party won gubernatorial elections. The NFP represented the first failed attempt to create a credible alternative to the LDP and we can learn much from its failure.
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