Abstract
The pandemic hit the economy extremely hard, causing a 7.9% q/q contraction in Q2 2020, the largest quarterly drop on record. Spending and activity have recovered after the state of emergency was lifted in late May and we expect a robust rebound in growth in Q3. That said, forward‐looking indicators paint a mixed picture, so we expect the subsequent recovery to be uneven and protracted. On the political side, Yoshihide Suga succeeded Shinzo Abe as Prime Minister in mid‐ September and will likely continue to follow the policy path his predecessor charted. We forecast GDP to shrink 5.7% in 2020 before growing 2.5% in 2021 (compared to −6.0% and +2.8% previously).
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