Japan's Taiwan Tangle

Abstract

From mid-1963 to early 1964, Japanese relations with the Nationalist regime on Taiwan fell to their lowest point since the nations signed a bilateral peace treaty in 1952. The Chinese Nationalists objected to increased Japanese trade with Peking, notably the deferredpayment sale of a vinylon textile plant; Prime Minister Ikeda's negative comments on return to the mainland; and the repatriation to Communist China of an interpreter, Chou Hung-ching, whose defection and subsequent indecision provoked riots, boycotts, and other anti-Japanese acts in Taipei. Relations did improve somewhat in early 1964 due to the efforts of the Ikeda cabinet and the indirect assist given by French recognition of Communist China, which spurred Taipei to mend its diplomatic fences.' American diplomats may also have urged caution on both Tokyo and Taipei lest another rupture widen allied differences. The recent Japan-Taiwan crisis, however, is important less for the immediate issues than as the best manifestation since 1958 of deeper conflicts of interest. China policy is perhaps the most difficult among Japan's foreign policy dilemmas, and the Taiwan aspect of that policy deserves special analysis at a time when other nations are also reassessing their own policies toward the two Chinas. How did the 1963-64 issues illustrate basic differences between Japanese and Nationalist views? We should contrast the official Liberal-Democratic party and opposition Socialist positions on Taiwan with some private opinions of party leaders, especially LiberalDemocrats sometimes described as pro-Nationalist and pro-Peking. Then, a look at Japanese survey data on popular attitudes, and the record of Japanese-Taiwan trade in recent years, will help us assess the probable future course of Tokyo policy. This report can touch only briefly on the extent to which the Nationalist regime can enlist support from its large indigenous population (80% of the 12 million inhabitants and of the armed forces) for any hostile policy toward Japan. The permission granted by the Japanese government in August 1963 for