Japan's Energy Strategy at the Crossroads

Abstract

HE WORLD OF ENERGY POLICY is characterized by sharp discontinuil ties and high stakes. Responses to energy supply uncertainties and the quest for energy security vary among nations, reflecting the different decision-making systems, resource profiles, and the values and perceptions of the future which are dominant in a country at a particular time. Indeed, the energy strategies of Japan reflect its unique social decisionmaking system and position as a major actor in world energy markets, with few natural resources except for a large population and a system disciplined to pursue national economic security objectives. The importance of Japan in the energy sphere, however, is not limited to the effects of its own consumption upon short-term supply and demand for different fuels. Japan has successfully changed technologies, which, in turn, has affected world demand patterns for energy, and influenced the longer-term development of certain important global energy resources such as coal. The attributes of Japan's energy strategies in the past two decades provide an interesting model of response to a turbulent, complex environment. The Japanese model masterfully blends aggressive and defensive tactics, harmonizes competition with cooperation, and combines a longer-term assessment of domestic and international events with flexibility and a sensitive response to the current environment. In this article we analyze the development of Japanese energy policy and attempt to predict Japan's future actions to secure its energy supply.