Japan and Taiwan – a Strategic Convergence?

Csaba Barnabas Horváth

doi:10.17951/teka.2016.11.1.85

Abstract

<p>Artykuł dotyczy współzależności strategicznych Japonii i Tajwanu. Są one konsekwencją z jednej strony wzrostu Chin, z drugiej coraz większej militarnej aktywności Japonii w regionie. Tajwan chcąc ochronić swój obecny status potrzebuje zbudowania silnej koalicji w regonie. Zachowanie status quo Tajwanu leży również w interesie Japonii, ze względu na jego położenie geopolityczne. Tajwan pełni rolę bariery pomiędzy Chinami a otwartym Pacyfikiem, będąc częścią tzw. pierwszego łańcuch wysp. Zatem przejęcie Tajwanu przez Chiny miałoby katastrofalne skutki dla Japonii, oraz zachwiałoby poważnie równowagę w regionie Azji i Pacyfiku.</p>

Highlights

This paper will analyze how the recent trend of Japan becoming a “normal country” impacts the security of Taiwan and prospects for Taiwan in cross-strait relations from a realist perspective
I argue that the growing concerns of the Taiwanese population over the increasing influence of China and the ongoing “normalization” i.e., remilitarization and increasing global and regional activism of Japan, are trends that point towards a convergence of interests between the two countries
The increasing activism of Japan as a regional actor puts it in need of regional allies, and in this regard, unlike the reluctance of South Korea, Taiwanese public opinion is highly supportive of cooperation between the two countries

Summary

INTRODUCTION

This paper will analyze how the recent trend of Japan becoming a “normal country” impacts the security of Taiwan and prospects for Taiwan in cross-strait relations from a realist perspective. A 60% increase in the number of the fourth and fifth generation jet fighter aircraft would raise Japan to the rank of the fourth or fifth in the world, in parity with India, and surpassed only by the USA, China and Russia This is important for the security of Taiwan because any meaningful PRC military action against Taiwan would require it to use its naval capabilities. The strategic significance of Taiwan is likely to increase in the coming years.[25] Third, Taiwan lies nearby sea lanes that are crucial for Japan’s economy, the sea lanes linking Japan to the Malacca Straits.[26] Fourth, among Japan’s neighbors, in general, Taiwan is the country with the friendliest attitude towards Japan, true for both its political elite and its public, in contrast to South Korea, for example, where strategic interests would support cooperation with Japan, public opinion does not due to emotions on historical issues.

25 Annual Report to Congress

27 Lam Peng-er: Japan-taiwan Relations

Findings

CONCLUSION