J. Biden Administration: Thorns and Roses of Return to “Normality”

Abstract

The policy of the J. Biden administration to return to normality in the functioning of the US political system is analyzed. Political normality is interpreted as an attempt to "finally reverse" the period of the Republican administration of Donald Trump in power. The return of American politics to normal tracks of political processes has come across a well-known pattern that has been in effect throughout the entire period of modern and recent US history, in which every newly elected president and his party lose a significant number of seats in the House of Representatives in the next midterm elections. and often in the Senate, leading to the loss of control over one or even two houses of the US Congress. At present, it can be assumed that this pattern will also manifest itself in the 2022 midterm elections, which will definitely become a “referendum on J, Biden.” In the 2022 elections, the decisive factor for their outcome will be the J. Biden's job approval rating as president, which has fallen below 50% since the end of last summer and has been steadily declining since then. Based on statistical models of the relationship between the job approval rating of the incumbent President and the number of possible flipped seats in the House of Representatives, it is defined as being in the range of 30-40 seats. The loss of control by the Democrats of the US Senate is also not ruled out.