It's about time: Forecasting the 2008 presidential election with the time-for-change model

Abstract

The popular vote for president can be predicted accurately before the national nominating conventions based on three factors: the incumbent president's approval rating at mid-year, the growth rate of the economy during the first half of the election year, and the length of time that the president's party has controlled the White House. Regardless of who wins the Democratic and Republican nominations, 2008 will be a time-for-change presidential election. Based on President Bush's approval rating in June of 2007, the recent growth rate of the economy, and the fact that the Republican Party will have controlled the White House for eight years, the Democratic nominee would be predicted to win the national popular vote by a comfortable margin. For the Republican nominee to have a reasonable chance of winning the 2008 presidential election, there would have to be a dramatic improvement in President Bush's approval rating during the next 12 months.