Abstract
Using a structure-conduct-performance model, we analyse competitive balance in the male (Association of Tennis Professionals or ATP) and female (Women Tennis Association or WTA) professional tennis circuits. Measures of inter-seasonal uncertainty as well as indicators for long-term uncertainty suggest that men's tennis is more competitive. From year to year, the share of new top 10 players is larger in ATP as are the changes in position of the remaining players. Equally, the number one position in the ATP rankings changes more frequently. Indicators for match-specific and seasonal uncertainty, however, suggest no difference in competitive balance between WTA and ATP: men's and women's matches are equally (un-)predictable. The reason for this apparent puzzle lies in the fact that lower ranked men have a better chance to make it to the finals. As uncertainty of outcome is often assumed to be a major determinant of a sport's popularity, the observed differences between the ATP and WTA competitions are expected to translate into differences in the interest of the public and media.
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