ITrendRNN: An Interpretable Trend-Aware RNN for Meteorological Spatiotemporal Prediction

Abstract

Accurate prediction of meteorological elements, such as temperature and relative humidity, is important to human livelihood, early warning of extreme weather, and urban governance. Recently, neural network-based methods have shown impressive performance in this field. However, most of them are overcomplicated and impenetrable. In this paper, we propose a straightforward and interpretable differential framework, where the key lies in explicitly estimating the evolutionary trends. Specifically, three types of trends are exploited. (1) The proximity trend simply uses the most recent changes. It works well for approximately linear evolution. (2) The sequential trend explores the global information, aiming to capture the nonlinear dynamics. Here, we develop an attention-based trend unit to help memorize long-term features. (3) The flow trend is motivated by the nature of evolution, i.e., the heat or substance flows from one region to another. Here, we design a flow-aware attention unit. It can reflect the interactions via performing spatial attention over flow maps. Finally, we develop a trend fusion module to adaptively fuse the above three trends. Extensive experiments on two datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.