Iterative QML estimation for asymmetric stochastic volatility models

Abstract

AbstractThe paper illustrates a new procedure for estimating asymmetric stochastic volatility models. These models shape the asymmetric effect of negative and positive financial returns on the expected volatility, behaviour often observed in the stock prices, and known as “leverage effect”. The procedure is based on the iterative application of the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) method and is proposed as an alternative to the procedure presented by Harvey and Shephard in 1996 and based on the application of the QML method on a modified auxiliary model. The estimation results generally converge to constant values after a few iterations. The volatility predictor provided by the new method is conceptually similar to the EGARCH predictor and different from the predictor of the other procedure. A simulation study shows that the iterative QML method provides parameter estimators with RMSEs decreasing as series length increases. The distribution of the estimates is approximately normal, and the approximation improves as the series size increases. Empirical applications of the method provide results similar to ones of the method known in literature. However, the two methods provide two different predictors and smoothers of volatility, which should be compared on a case-by-case basis.