Item Parameter Recovery: Sensitivity to Prior Distribution.

Abstract

Marginal maximum likelihood, a common estimation method for item response theory models, is not inherently a Bayesian procedure. However, due to estimation difficulties, Bayesian priors are often applied to the likelihood when estimating 3PL models, especially with small samples. Little focus has been placed on choosing the priors for marginal maximum estimation. In this study, using sample sizes of 1,000 or smaller, not using priors often led to extreme, implausible parameter estimates. Applying prior distributions to the c-parameters alleviated the estimation problems with samples of 500 or more; for the samples of 100, priors on both the a-parameters and c-parameters were needed. Estimates were biased when the mode of the prior did not match the true parameter value, but the degree of the bias did not depend on the strength of the prior unless it was extremely informative. The root mean squared error (RMSE) of the a-parameters and b-parameters did not depend greatly on either the mode or the strength of the prior unless it was extremely informative. The RMSE of the c-parameters, like the bias, depended on the mode of the prior for c.