It Takes Two to Proliferate: Nuclear Supply and the Grand Bargain

Abstract

Questions and concerns regarding nuclear proliferation have engaged security scholars for decades. Why do some states proliferate, while others decide not to? What roles do international institutions, norms, and the balancing of power play in such decisions? These questions and many others address proliferation from the demand-side. In this article, we approach proliferation from the opposite angle - the supply-side. Why do nuclear states decide to help nonnuclear states proliferate? Why do these supplier states decide to help these particular recipient states, and not any others? To answer these questions we propose a bargaining theory of nuclear assistance, where relational factors, domestic players, critical bargaining chips, and international constraints interact to explain the success or failure of the nuclear collaboration.