It Takes More than Grades: Estimating College Major Course-Taking with Transcript Data

Abstract

This paper studies the association between major ability beliefs and course-taking patterns, and finds that previous works have likely inflated the role of ability sorting. Using administrative transcript data, I find that before declaring their first major, most students have completed at least 10% of the course requirements in many majors. I create a dynamic course-taking to interpret these diverse course-taking patterns. The model informs my estimation strategy of the association between ability beliefs and course histories on subsequent course-taking. I find positive associations between ability beliefs and continuing to satisfy a majors’ course requirements. These associations substantially attenuate when controlling for course histories, suggesting the effort costs needed to graduate act against ability sorting.