It's the mobility culture, stupid! Winter conditions strongly reduce bicycle usage in German cities, but not in Dutch ones

Abstract

Cycling is healthy, cheap, and environmentally sustainable, but these benefits remain unexploited if many people only cycle in summer but not in winter. Seasonal differences in cycling are small in Dutch cities but relatively large in German cities. This paper tests whether this is because seasonal conditions are more moderate in the Netherlands or because German cyclists are more sensitive to temperature, rain, and daylight hours. After discussing how German mobility culture mirrors and potentially perpetuates seasonal cycling patterns, I analyse around 335,000 trips from German and Dutch travel surveys enriched with city-level climate data. Results show that Germans react about twice as strongly to changes in temperature and daylight hours as the Dutch. This reveals untapped potential for year-round cycling in countries like Germany, with its benefits for health, finances, and sustainability: The barrier is not the natural environment, but people's response to it. Such responses could change, potentially stimulated by policies that improve winter-friendly infrastructure or boost the idea of year-round cycling as normal behaviour.