“It’s the average cost, mister!” – Explaining the recurrent dismissal of European soccer coaches

Abstract

ABSTRACT The professional survival of a coach can be explained by the ability of the team that he or she trains to achieve a reasonable number of points in relation to the total team’s budget. In this work, we test the microeconomic indicator of average cost as an important (and so far unassessed) dimension in the survival of a professional football coach in the face of recurrent defeats. For this purpose, we use empirical methods associated with survival analysis considering recurrent events. We analyse 1077 contract durations between the 2009/2010 and 2019/2020 seasons of the professional leagues in Spain, England, Italy, Germany, France and Portugal. We conclude that the average cost (total budget divided by points achieved in the national championships) is an important dimension. We also discuss other dimensions – such as clubs’ financial characteristics, neighbouring teams’ competitiveness or coaches’ individual characteristics – which, in certain leagues, also prove to be determinant.