IT employment prospects: beyond the dotcom bubble

Abstract

In the 1990s, enrollments grew rapidly in information systems (IS) and computer science. Then, beginning in 2000 and 2001, enrollments declined precipitously. This paper looks at the enrollment bubble and the dotcom bubble that drove IT enrollments. Although the enrollment bubble occurred worldwide, this paper focuses primarily on U.S. data, which is widely available, and secondarily on Western Europe data. The paper notes that the dotcom bubble was an investment disaster but that U.S. IT employment fell surprisingly little and soon surpassed the bubble's peak IT employment. In addition, U.S. IT unemployment rose to almost the level of total unemployment in 2003, then fell to traditional low levels by 2005. Job prospects in the U.S. and most other countries are good for the short term, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment projections for 2006–2016 indicate that job prospects in the U.S. will continue to be good for most IT jobs. However, offshoring is a persistent concern for students in Western Europe and the United States. The data on offshoring are of poor quality, but several studies indicate that IT job losses from offshoring are small and may be counterbalanced by gains in IT inshoring jobs. At the same time, offshoring and productivity gains appear to be making low-level jobs such as programming and user support less attractive. This means that IS and computer science programs will have to focus on producing higher-level job skills among graduates. In addition, students may have to stop considering the undergraduate degree to be a terminal degree in IS and computer science.