Abstract

In this paper, the issues of probabilistic analysis of the safety of technical systems are considered. The complexity of assessing the reliability and safety of an electrical substation is due to the insufficiency of initial information about the processes taking place in it, the lack of information about the behavior of the object at previous stages of operation, the practical lack of information about the condition of the object after repair and restoration work, etc. In the existing method of probabilistic safety analysis, in cases where information about individual processes and phenomena is missing or incomplete, the risk calculation is accompanied by a high degree of uncertainty. The article considers structural schemes for calculating the reliability of a single-line substation circuit and, based on them, a formula for calculating the risk of an electrical substation is derived that allows assessing its safety and controlling safety indicators.

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