Issues in fuel cell commercialization

Abstract

After 25 years of effort, the phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC) is approaching commercialization as cell stack assemblies (CAS) show convincingly low degradation and its balance-of-plant (BOP) achieves mature reliability. A high present capital cost resulting from limited cumulative production remains an issue. The primary PAFC developer in the USA (International Fuel Cells, IFC) has only manufactured 40 MW of PAFC components to date, the equivalent of a single large gas turbine aero-engine or 500 compact car engines. The system is therefore still far up the production learning curve. Even so, the next generation of on-site 40% electrical efficiency (LHV) combined heat-and-power (CHP) PAFC system was available for order from IFC in 1995 at US$ 3000/kW (1995). To effectively compete in the marketplace with diesel generators, the dispersed cogeneration PAFC must cost approximately US$ 1550/kW (1995) in the USA and Europe. At somewhat lower costs than this, dispersed cogeneration PAFCs will compete with large combined-cycle generators. However, in Japan, costs greater than US$ 2000/kW will be competitive, based on the late-1995 trade exchange rate of 100–105 Yen/US $). The perceived advantages of fuel cell technologies over developments of more conventional generators (e.g., ultra-low emissions, siting) are not strong selling points in the marketplace. The ultimate criterion is cost. Cost reduction is now the key to market penetration. This must include reduced installation costs, for which the present goal is US$ 385/kW (1995). How further capital cost reductions can be achieved by the year 2000 is discussed. Progress to date is reviewed, and the potential for pressurized electric utility PAFC units is determined. Markets for high-temperature fuel cell system (molten carbonate, MCFC, and solid oxide, SOFC), which many consider to be 20 and 30 years, respectively, behind the PAFC, are discussed. Their high efficiency and high-quality waste heat should make them attractive if technical progress and costs are acceptable. Commercialization of the proton-exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) system is considered for stationary and mobile applications.