Issues in forecasting graduate dental education manpower supply and requirements

Abstract

This paper explores the history of forecasting in dentistry and then focuses on several major forecasting techniques, briefly examining the basic assumptions, data requirements, and strengths and weaknesses of each. In discussing the issues involved in forecasting, the paper isolates three perspectives held by forecasters; health status, social need, and economic. Each approach defines the critical concept of "adequate supply" in a different way. Other issues addressed include: who should engage in forecasting; what methods should be employed; is it worth the effort to forecast requirements for dental specialists; should forecasting be done for small areas; and what is the "political" reality of forecasting.