Issue uncertainty and selections of policy instruments in policy pilots: evidence from China’s long-term care insurance

Abstract

ABSTRACT Policy pilots have been instrumental in governing China’s economic and social development. Prior research has primarily concentrated on examining the types of policy pilots and their promotion strategies through the lens of central-local dynamics, and analysing the organizational models of policy pilots within specific contexts. However, there’s a gap in understandinghow the central government employs policy instruments to foster organizational learning within pilots. In complex policy pilots, there is often uncertainty regarding objectives, pathways, and outcomes. Using China’s Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) pilot as a case study, this research reveals that policy pilots utilize distinct sets of policy instruments during the organizational learning process, contingent upon the context. The first set of instruments indicates a shift in the central government’s intervention intensity, ranging from weak to strong, employing autonomous, advocacy, and directive policy instruments in sequence. The second set of instruments shows an evolution in the depth of the central government’s engagement with the policy issues, progressing from shallow to deep, with the use of booster, framework, and calibrated policy instruments, respectively. This study highlights how policy pilots employ a diverse array of instruments to navigate the intricacies of policy implementation when confronting complex social policy challenges.