Issue-Attention and Punctuated Equilibria Models Reconsidered: An Empirical Examination of the Dynamics of Agenda-Setting in Canada

Abstract

AbstractMost of the work on policy dynamics focuses on the agenda-setting stage of the policy cycle and argues that policy issues wax and wane in public attention, generating either a cyclical or evolutionary pattern of governmental activity in particular policy sectors. Anthony Downs's notion of a periodic “issue-attention cycle” and Frank Baumgartner and Bryan Jones's notion of a stepped or “punctuated equilibrium” pattern of policy change are prominent in the literature, but have received little empirical and virtually no cross-national verification. Utilizing the analysis of time-series data gathered on nuclear energy and acid rain issues appearing on government and public agendas in Canada over the period 1977–1992, this article elaborates the elements of the two models and subjects both to empirical testing. The article finds little support for either model in the Canadian case and argues the assumptions behind the models must be altered to account for this anomalous case.