Abstract
The main aim of this paper is to answer the research question, “Is the Gompertz model suitable for studying the diffusion of the ISO 22000 standard in Europe?” Forecasting models adopting the Gompertz model were developed to estimate to which extent the Food Safety Management Systems (FSMS) based on the ISO 22000 standard are expected to be implemented and certified in the European continent. To provide a forecast for the next few years, data from the diffusion of renowned ISO standards, namely, ISO 9001 and ISO 14001, were extrapolated in order to overcome the shortcoming since data concerning ISO 22000 certification was only available for the period 2007 to 2018. The results provide a cross-sectional portrayal of the European diffusion of ISO 22000 certification and suggest an interval of the estimated number of certificates issued in Europe. This research paper presents the first attempt to empirically analyze the dynamic of diffusion of the European ISO 22000 certification. A more accurate fitting with real results may be expected with further information available in the forthcoming years.
Highlights
ISO 22000 certification can be adopted by any organization directly or indirectly involved in the food chain, encompassing both consumer and market needs [1]
Results of Forecasting Models with Extrapolated Data. The results of both forecasting models indicate that they reach the same level of growth and suggest that Europe is positioned in the stationary phase
Analyzing the ISO 22000 dynamic of growth based on ISO 9001 (Figure 4), it is possible to state that Europe achieved the inflection point in 2009 with a total of 5468 certificates issued and reaching a saturation level of 14,873 certifications, whereas based on ISO 14001, the inflection point was attained in 2008 with a total of 4043 certificates issued and reaching a maximum of 10,996 certifications (Figure 5)
Summary
ISO 22000 certification can be adopted by any organization directly or indirectly involved in the food chain, encompassing both consumer and market needs [1]. Recent global events evidence that our current food production is unsustainable, and issues related to the increasing population, increased food demand, and high levels of food waste in the food systems emphasize the need for more sustainable practices [7]. This problem is so significant that the UN Sustainable Development Goals include “Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns” with “Halve per capita global food waste at the retail and consumer levels and reduce food losses along production and supply chains, including post-harvest losses” [8]
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