Abstract
Our essay, based on Arab Barometer data, shows that Islamist radicalism among potential migrants from the Arab world to the West is smaller than among the total population. Given the fact that this radicalism is still big enough to represent a serious security problem is another story. According to our data analysis, based on Science Po, 755 persons died in Islamist terror attacks in Europe from 1979 to 2019. Our analysis finds evidence for an eleven-year cycle in Islamist terrorist activity in Europe. The next peak of Islamist terrorism in Western Europe will happen around 2027. The main perpetrators of Islamist terrorist attacks in Western Europe, 1979–2019, were Al-Qaida and ISIL, who alone killed 66% of the total number of victims. Our multivariate analysis, based on nineteen items from the Arab Barometer Survey, explaining more than 50% of the total variance, shows that support for Turkey under Erdogan and for Iran under the Mullah regime are the most important pillars of Political Islam.
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