ISEE: Interface structure, evolution, and energy-based machine learning predictor of binding affinity changes upon mutations.

Abstract

Quantitative evaluation of binding affinity changes upon mutations is crucial for protein engineering and drug design. Machine learning‐based methods are gaining increasing momentum in this field. Due to the limited number of experimental data, using a small number of sensitive predictive features is vital to the generalization and robustness of such machine learning methods. Here we introduce a fast and reliable predictor of binding affinity changes upon single point mutation, based on a random forest approach. Our method, iSEE, uses a limited number of interface Structure, Evolution, and Energy‐based features for the prediction. iSEE achieves, using only 31 features, a high prediction performance with a Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) of 0.80 and a root mean square error of 1.41 kcal/mol on a diverse training dataset consisting of 1102 mutations in 57 protein‐protein complexes. It competes with existing state‐of‐the‐art methods on two blind test datasets. Predictions for a new dataset of 487 mutations in 56 protein complexes from the recently published SKEMPI 2.0 database reveals that none of the current methods perform well (PCC < 0.42), although their combination does improve the predictions. Feature analysis for iSEE underlines the significance of evolutionary conservations for quantitative prediction of mutation effects. As an application example, we perform a full mutation scanning of the interface residues in the MDM2–p53 complex.