Abstract
This paper provides an initial empirical evaluation of the possible impact a low-emission zone (LEZ) has on vehicle scrappage rates. The analysis is based on a quasi-experimental design, which is applied to the Spanish case known as Madrid Central. Our results, which are quite robust to reasonable changes in the geographic areas used as controls, reveal an excess of scrapping decisions by vehicle owners in the city of Madrid following the implementation of this urban policy. This excess scrapping is transitory and particularly notable for old vehicles subject to major traffic restrictions. The results suggest that establishing a LEZ in a relatively small area can generate some social gains, in terms of transport safety and removal of the vehicles that pollute the most, which may outweigh the simple benefit of improving air quality in the area.
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