Is vegetation in equilibrium with climate? How to interpret late-Quaternary pollen data

Abstract

Current methods for estimating past climatic patterns from pollen data require that the vegetation be in dynamic equilibrium with the climate. Because climate varies continuously on all time scales, judgement about equilibrium conditions must be made separately for each frequency band (i.e. time scale) of climatic change. For equilibrium conditions to exist between vegetation and climatic changes at a particular time scale, the climatic response time of the vegetation must be small compared to the time scale of climatic variation to which it is responding. The time required for vegetation to respond completely to climatic forcing at a time scale of 104 yr is still unknown, but records of the vegetational response to climatic events of 500to 1000-yr duration provide evidence for relatively short response times. Independent estimates for the possible patterns and timing of late-Quaternary climate changes suggest that much of the vegetational evidence previously interpreted as resulting from disequilibrium conditions can instead be interpreted as resulting from the individualistic response of plant taxa to the different regional patterns of temperature and precipitation change. The differences among taxa in their response to climate can lead a) to rates and direction of plantpopulation movements that differ among taxa and b) to fossil assemblages that differ from any modern assemblage. An example of late-Holocene vegetational change in southern Quebec illustrates how separate changes in summer and winter climates may explain the simultaneous expansion of spruce (Picea) populations southward and beech (Fagus) populations northward.