Is There Really A Shortage of Technical Professionals?

Abstract

All of us are familiar with what I call here the Portrait of the U.S. science and engineering workforce. It appears frequently in the media, in statements by corporate leaders and lobbyists, and in Congressional testimony. It may be summarized briefly as follows: 1. There are serious or shortfalls in the U.S. of scientists and engineers--either current shortages/ shortfalls, or looming ones--that bode ill for the creativity and competitiveness of the U.S. economy. 2. The numbers of newly-educated scientists and engineers graduating from U.S. universities are insufficient for the needs of U.S. employers, this despite the fact that the science careers they are offering are growing rapidly and are attractive and well-remunerated. It is this insufficiency that is forcing U.S. high-tech firms to offshore increasing fractions of their RD and in the 2006 National Academies report Rising Above the Gathering Storm, which was the basis for substantial parts of what eventually evolved into the America COMPETES Act. The 2005 Tapping America's Potential report called for an array of policies and expenditures to double the number of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics graduates by 2015, i.e., a 100 percent increase in 10 years. They were very forthright about this, with the core goal appearing right on the report's cover. The Realities Conventional does not necessarily mean correct, of course. Perhaps surprisingly, the declarative statements summarized above actually are largely inconsistent with the findings of most researchers who have come to the subject with an open mind. These include leading researchers at the Rand Corporation, Harvard University, National Bureau of Economic Research, Urban Institute, Georgetown University, Georgia State University, Stanford University, etc. Here is a similarly brief summary of the conclusions from such research: 1. There are no objective data suggesting general shortages of scientists and engineers. (Indeed some researchers suggest the empirical evidence points more toward surpluses than shortages.) There is much variation among fields, and some evidence of hiring difficulties in a few specific locales and in some sectors and technologies that are new or growing rapidly. 2. There are substantially more scientists and engineers graduating from U.S. universities than can find attractive career openings in the U.S. workforce (1). Indeed, U.S. careers in science and engineering appear to be relatively unattractive--relative, that is, to alternative professional career paths available to U.S. graduates with strengths in science and math (2). 3. Students in the off-criticized K-12 system appear to be studying science and math subjects more, and performing better in them, over time; nor are U.S. secondary school students lagging far behind comparable students in economically-competitive countries (3). …