Abstract

Applying cointegration techniques in a panel data setting, we document persistent growth of manufactured exports from certain developing countries. To complement the investigation of persistence (measured by the country ‘fixed-effects’), we analyze asymmetries in income elasticities: for all developing countries, the decline in exports with world income contraction is sharper than is the rise on the upswing; the decline is, however, especially pronounced for countries with low or negative persistence. The results are consistent with long-term buyer-supplier relationships that create ‘insiders’ and ‘outsiders’ in manufactured goods trading. Exports are also influenced by the transactional infrastructure (proxied by telecommunications penetration).

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