Abstract
We investigate whether momentum or reversal is the dominant phenomenon in short horizon (one- to four-week) foreign exchange rate returns. We find, based on a broad sample of 63 emerging and developed market currencies, evidence of momentum rather than reversal. Momentum returns are as large as 9% p.a. The short-term momentum effect appears to be robust. Returns are larger in the earlier sub-period but still exist in the more recent period. The strategies are also profitable in US recessions and expansions, and in up and down currency markets.
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