Is there any long-term memory effect in the tropical cyclones?

Abstract

The investigation of the intrinsic properties of the annual tropical cyclone count over Atlantic, during 1870–2006, is herewith attempted. The motivation behind this exploration is to contribute to the current understanding about the dynamics of these disastrous events, as tropical cyclones create destructive impacts for people living around tropical areas. The analytical tool used is the detrended fluctuation analysis, and the exponent obtained reveals that the time series of the annual tropical cyclone count over Atlantic obeys the classical random walk (white noise). In other words, the number of tropical cyclones seems to exhibit neither persistent nor antipersistent behavior. The reliability of the lack of scaling dependence in the time series of the annual tropical cyclone count is confirmed, by applying error bounds statistics and studying the decay of the autocorrelation function (i.e., not rejected exponential decay) and the variability of local slopes (i.e., lack of constancy in a sufficient range). In addition, the fact that the series used is fractional Gaussian noise depicts that the results obtained are reliable, despite the fact that the available data set is still limited. The indication of a nearly white noise signal in the tropical cyclone count fluctuations does not suggest that the climate change phenomenon does not exist.