Is There a Statistical Connection between Stratospheric Sudden Warming and Tropospheric Blocking Events?

Abstract

Abstract This paper presents statistical analyses of possible associations between major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) and tropospheric blocking events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) with 49 yr of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data from 1957/58 to 2005/06. Using a random shuffling or “bootstrap” method, these analyses explore two hypotheses claiming that blocking events occur preferentially and last longer in association with SSWs (pre- and post-SSW periods are considered separately). In the shuffling method, the defined SSWs are randomly redistributed to evaluate the statistical significance of linked cases in the original data. The author’s analyses generally do not support either hypothesis for the pre- or post-SSW period when treating the SSW events all together, suggesting that such associations are not dominant modes of coupling.