IS THERE A SEASON FOR HOMICIDE?

Abstract

A “thermic law” postulating a relationship between violent crime and hot weather or southern climates is one of the oldest propositions in criminology. On the question of homicide and seasonality, modern research produces contradictory findings—some studies support a seasonal pattern of homicide but others reject such a pattern. A review of studies on the seasonality of homicide and an analysis of Uniform Crime Reports data and data on homicide in Baltimore from 1974 to 1984 are undertaken in order to resolve the issue. The contradictory results are not explained by differences in definitions nor by differences in data or methodology; nor are they explained on the bases of regional differences or an urban bias present in most studies. The nature of the question asked, however, is critical to the results obtained. The conclusion reached is that there is no season to homicide. The months of December, July, and August are significantly more likely to be among the months in which homicide is high for any given year, but the number of homicides during those months may not be significantly higher than in other months.