Is there a dark side to financial inclusion? Understanding the relationship between financial inclusion and market risk

Abstract

This study delves into the connection between market risk and financial inclusion. Market risk is gauged through primary risk metrics commonly used in industry and academia, such as Standard Deviation (SD), Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall (ES), and Expected Loss (EL). In exploring financial inclusion, we consider twelve specific indicators that span three crucial dimensions: penetration, availability, and usage. Our analysis covers data from 49 countries spanning the period from 2004 to 2021, encompassing G20 nations and markets hosting major global stock exchanges. Our findings reveal a positive correlation between various indicators of financial inclusion and certain risk characteristics. Notably, distinctions emerge between underdeveloped and developed countries. In the case of developed nations, for instance, the quantity of active mobile money accounts and mobile money agent outlets exhibits a robust correlation with market risk. Through quantile correlation analysis, we discern that the relationship between risk and financial inclusion undergoes shifts based on the level of inclusion. Therefore, despite the documented advantages of financial inclusion, our study sheds light on its potential adverse implications.