Is the World Deteriorating?

Abstract

THE WORLD IS BECOMING A LESS CONFLICT-RIDDEN PLACE, AND IT HAS BEEN for decades. Wars and violent conflicts are on the decline, according to expert consensus. In particular, we note abundant evidence that suggests that the is not deteriorating from Steven Pinker's conclusion of a long-term general decline in global violence (1) to Azar Gat's analysis pointing to a decline in war since the mid-1990s (2) to the 2013 Human Security Report proclaiming a substantial decline in conflicts since the early 1990s. (3) It was for that reason that a systematic analysis of crisis data from a global leader in crisis tracking left us baffled. We analyzed all of the International Crisis Group's monthly CrisisWatch statistics for the crises it has tracked from its inception in September 2003 to March 2014. Crisis Group's data paint a startlingly different picture: a that has substantially over the past decade. How could this be? If Crisis Group was a mediocre crisis tracker, then we might grant the incongruity to incompetence. (4) But it is well resourced, drawing on multiple sources including over 100 analysts across five continents. In addition, it boasts a stellar cast. Past and current board trustees include a former UN High Commissioner; a former US under-secretary of state and ambassador to the UN, Russia, India, Israel, Jordan, El Salvador, and Nigeria; and a former UN deputy secretary-general and administrator of the UN Development Programme. Crisis Group also prides itself on generally [being] regarded as the world's leading source of information, analysis and policy advice on preventing and resolving deadly conflict. (5) We can confidently rule out incompetence as a source of incongruence with expert consensus, which makes this puzzle all the more interesting. First, the pieces: Crisis Group has tracked or is tracking 130 countries and regions (i.e., distinct conflict zones) over the 127-month period we examined. Crisis Group does not track every zone in every month. Some conflict zones were not on Crisis Group's radar when it started; some that were are not anymore. We first verified whether there was a change in the number of conflict zones tracked over time. Contrary to the world thesis, we found that there was a slight, but statistically significant increase in the number of conflict zones that Crisis Group reported on during roughly the past decade. We then reasoned that, while the number of conflict zones reported on had increased, Crisis Group might have been reporting more favorable conditions over time within those zones. However, that was not the case. In each month, Crisis Group reports whether the conflict zones that it tracks have significantly deteriorated, improved, or on balance remained more or less unchanged. Deterioration means a significant increase in conflict; for example, continued to worsen, attacks significantly escalated, and security further deteriorated are some of the descriptions used for this assessment. Improvement means the opposite; for example, comprehensive peace agreement, new constitution signed, and restore state authority. Unchanged means there was no change in conflict status since the last report. Over the period we examined. Crisis Group issued 9,378 such assessments. Deteriorated situations outnumbered improvements in all but 3 of its 127 months of reporting history. And of the 130 conflict zones, 99 (76.2 percent) had a net surplus of deteriorations by March 2014 over the period they were tracked. Stated differently, over more than a decade of monthly reporting involving 130 conflict zones, the odds of deterioration rather than improvement or stasis were 3:1 based on Crisis Group's reporting. What makes this puzzle more baffling is the fact that some of Crisis Group's leaders have issued statements in support of the improving thesis. For example, in a 2012 opinion essay entitled The Global March Towards Peace, Crisis Group's president emeritus, Gareth Evans, points out, The bigger story has been concealed, as ever, by the media's daily preoccupation with current bloodshed: Over the last two decades, major wars and episodes of mass violence worldwide have become much less frequent and deadly. …