Abstract

One simple way for a hypothetical investor to update an estimate of expected returns is to apply the Bayes rule. In its simplest form this involves no information other than an estimate of the prior distribution and historical data on stock returns. However, such a simple method of updating expectations is inconsistent with much of finance theory. This short paper draws out the distinction and asks if the market is becoming more Bayesian and, if so, what are the implications?

Full Text
Paper version not known

Talk to us

Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have

Schedule a call

Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.