Is the Second Demographic Transition a useful framework for understanding the spatial patterns of fertility change in Serbia at the beginning of the 21st century?

Vladimir Nikitović,Branislav Bajat,Aleksandar Sekulić,Daniela Arsenović

doi:10.14712/23361980.2019.14

Vladimir Nikitović, Branislav Bajat + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.14712/23361980.2019.14

Copy DOI

Journal: AUC GEOGRAPHICA	Publication Date: Sep 20, 2019
Citations: 4	License type: cc-by

Affiliation: University of Belgrade, University of Novi Sad

Abstract

Is the Second Demographic Transition a useful framework for understanding the spatial patterns of fertility change in Serbia at the beginning of the 21st century?

Highlights

In the European context, the second demographic transition (SDT) was studied through various socio-demographic processes including: fertility decline, mortality impact on fertility change, marital postponement, non-marital fertility, partner relationships, changing household forms etc
We focus on the spatial pattern and distribution of selected SDT indicators at the municipality level in Serbia based on spatial autocorrelation analysis in order to find out whether recent demographic shifts can be interpreted within the framework of the second demographic transition
The spatial analyses were conducted at the local administrative unit (LAU) 2 level, which refers to municipalities in Serbia (Figure 3)

Summary

Introduction

In the European context, the second demographic transition (SDT) was studied through various socio-demographic processes including: fertility decline, mortality impact on fertility change, marital postponement, non-marital fertility, partner relationships, changing household forms etc. The general pattern of changes in the period total fertility rate in Serbia since 1950 was similar to those observed in most European countries: post-war baby boom followed by a decrease to the replacement level, and to the sub-replacement level (Figure 1). The share of non-marital births in Serbia in the twenty-first century resulted mainly from pre-marital cohabitations that are more typical for people in disadvantaged economic positions, such as lone mothers including those in extended multiple generation families (Penev, Stanković 2010; Stanković 2014) It suggests that the recent rise of the indicator does not reflect spreading of cohabitation as an alternative to marriage (Petrović 2011; Bobić, Vukelić 2011). The following spatial analysis of the SDT indicators (TFR, MAC and BOM) will show that a variety of other factors need to be considered in Serbia in order to gain an understanding of their substantially diverse distribution at sub-regional levels

Data and Methods

Global and Local Spatial Autocorrelation Indices

Total Fertility Rate

Mean Age of Women at Childbirth

Live Births Outside Marriage

Findings

Discussion and Conclusions