Is the Probability of Tossing a Coin Really 50–50%? Part 1: Static Model and Dynamic Models without Rebounds

Abstract

Considering that a fair coin has two sides and a cylindrical edge, the probability that it would fall on its edge is calculated, yielding the probability of heads or tails of less than 50%. In this first part, the theoretical models for a static case and for five dynamic cases, without rebounds, show that there is a small probability that the coin does not fall on its head or tail, depending on the initial toss conditions, the coin geometry and conditions of the coin and landing surfaces. It is found that the probability that a 50 Eurocent coin thrown from a normal height with common initial velocity conditions and appropriate surface conditions will end up on its edge is in the order of one against several thousand. In the second part of the paper, the dynamic model with rebounds is investigated.