Abstract
ABSTRACT: This paper presents a simultaneous model of fertility and female participation in Italy, estimated with a sequence of cross‐sections of micro data. Cohort dummies are used to capture permanent effects, including cohort changes in preferences. The cohort effects turn out to be not very significant, the point estimates suggesting a decreasing trend in participation and an increasing trend in fertility. The wage effects are instead rather strong and significant. The model produces simulations which are close to actual trends, which would seem largely explained by wage incentives. The explanation for a particularly high elasticity of fertility with respect to female wage should ultimately be searched for in the specific differences which characterize the Italian social and institutional environment.
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