Is the installation of photovoltaic/thermal for residential use in the MENA region feasible? A techno-economic and emission reduction discourse of the MENA region's commitment to the Paris Agreement

Abstract

Transition in the energy systems are intricate processes of change that have political, social, and technical components. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is a particularly complicated setting for these transformations, primarily due to the region's highly varied and variable energy resources, infrastructure, and economic and political frameworks. This study considers grid-integrated renewable for decarbonization of the MENA region. In this study, a 3 kWp grid-connected photovoltaic/thermal system is proposed for a four-person family in the MENA region. The performance of the proposed hybrid PV/T system is simulated and compared for the major cities in eighteen (18) MENA countries. Economic and environmental analysis of the hybrid system was also carried out. The simulation results reveal that the maximum reference yield of 2035 kWh was measured in Kuwait-Kuwait City, while the maximum final yield of 1786 kWh was measured in Morocco-Casablanca. In addition, the electrical efficiency in the region is found to be between 11.11% and 13.48%. The study also revealed that the optimal module efficiency was between January and February, while the least module efficiency was between July and August for all the cities considered. The proposed system in Morocco-Casablanca displays the highest annual specific yield of 1878 kWh/kWp. The maximum electricity to the grid amongst the cities considered in this study was recorded for Morocco-Casablanca with 3612 KW, while the least was measured for Tunisia-Tunis, with 2795 KW. The Net Present Value (NPV) analysis showed that Morocco-Casablanca, and Qatar-Doha are forerunners in terms of profitability if the proposed system is considered. The NPV values of the system for both cities were estimated to be $56,291 and $25,483, respectively. A maximum annual CO2 reduction of 1009 kg was calculated for UAE-Abu Dhabi while it was found that the annual total CO2 reduction in the entire region can go up to 15838 kg. Prediction analysis was also carried out to estimate the reference yield, final yield and electrical efficiency of the proposed system. The results showed that the artificial neural network model gave superior results when compared to the Gaussian process regression (GPR) model. Following the results of the current study, it can be confidently suggested that countries in the MENA region should explore the installations of hybrid PV/T systems for residential homes to actualize their commitment to the Paris agreement in reducing greenhouse emissions in the region.