Abstract
• Studies based on regression discontinuity designs detect an “incumbent curse” in young democracies. • We note that RD studies depend on the analysis of close elections, which induce players to strategically in ways that undermine potential incumbency advantages. • Data from Mexico shows an incumbency curse in municipal elections but not in elections for national legislators. • Municipal data show that the vote share of second-loser parties drops drastically after a close election and that the magnitude of the curse varies in states governed by copartisan governors. • Failure to account for these mechanisms risks exaggerating the size of the incumbent curse.
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