Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent?

J T Fasullo,B Hamlington,R S Nerem

doi:10.1038/srep31245

Abstract

Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred. This masking arose largely from a recovery in ocean heat content through the mid to late 1990 s subsequent to major heat content reductions in the years following the eruption. A consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade.

Highlights

Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time
A consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade
Confidence in the ability of the Large Ensemble (LE) to capture fundamental features of the eruption is high. This assessment of the sea level budget during Mt Pinatubo’s 1991 eruption and in the several years thereafter has far reaching implications. It suggests that our monitoring of sea level via altimetry began in a highly anomalous environment, one in which ocean heat content (OHC) had been significantly depressed by the eruption while the offsetting influences of the atmosphere and land surface had largely diminished

Summary

Introduction

Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. A consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade Driven by both the warming of the oceans and mass loss of the cryosphere, global mean sea level (GMSL) is among the most powerful indicators of a changing climate[1]. There are several theories to explain this variability[11,12], but here we present an additional explanation, with important implications for anticipated near-future acceleration

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Conclusion