Is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Chinas Growing Global Interconnectivity More Generally, Generating Network Effects and Lock-In Dynamics?

Abstract

Since its inception in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by Chinese President Xi Jinping has emerged as a transformative economic strategy aiming to reshape the economic landscape across Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa. This paper examines the connection between the BRI and network theory, a relatively underexplored area in the existing body of research. The BRI, covering five continents and over 100 countries, focuses mainly on South Asia, Central Asia, and Europe, including Russia, due to their central role in the initiative. The core of this paper lies in analyzing the network effects and lock-in dynamics associated with the BRI, especially in the context of developing countries. Part II delves into the positive arguments for BRIs network effects and lock-in dynamics, drawing on Bryan Druzins theories and adding the concepts of resilience and cultural connectivity. Conversely, challenges to these network effects and dynamics are scrutinized, including sustainability issues, institutional flaws, fragmentism with Chinese characteristics, neo-colonial critiques, and cultural and ideological disparities. A case study focusing on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in Part III sheds light on both the strengths and weaknesses of the BRIs approach. In conclusion, the paper posits that while the BRI is successfully building both material and conceptual foundations for its network, the significance of its network effects and lock-in dynamics is moderated by numerous challenges.