Abstract

In the Emergency Department it is mandatory to establish the diagnosis and the prognosis of acute pancreatitis as soon as possible. To evaluate whether the association of serum lipase either with serum beta2-microglobulin or with C-reactive protein allows simultaneously to establish the diagnosis and the prognosis of acute pancreatitis, 96 patients with acute abdomen were studied. Fifty-eight patients had non-pancreatic acute abdomen and the remaining 38 had acute pancreatitis: 23 mild acute pancreatitis, and 15 severe acute pancreatitis. Forty healthy subjects were studied as controls. Lipase, beta2-microglobulin and C-reactive protein were determined in the serum of all subjects, using commercial kits. One patient with acute pancreatitis was not correctly classified when lipase was used to discriminate between patients with non-pancreatic acute abdomen and those with acute pancreatitis. For the discrimination of patients with severe acute pancreatitis from those with the mild form of the disease in the remaining 37 acute pancreatitis patients, beta2-microglobulin had a sensitivity of 53.3 %, specificity of 81.8%, and prognostic accuracy of 70.3 % (27 of the 37 patients correctly classified); 87.5 % of the 96 cases were correctly classified. C-reactive protein showed a lower prognostic accuracy than beta2-microglobulin: sensitivity 86.7%, specificity 45.5%, accuracy 62.2 %; 84.4 % of the cases were correctly classified. Using the polychotomous logistic regression analysis we found the same accuracy in discriminating between patients with acute pancreatitis and those with non-pancreatic acute abdomen (99.0%) but a lower accuracy (54.1%) between patients with severe acute pancreatitis and those with the mild form of the disease. Our study shows that the association of serum lipase with beta2-microglobulin or with C-reactive protein is not useful in simultaneously establishing the diagnosis and prognosis of acute pancreatitis.

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