Is the AJCC TNM staging system still appropriate for gastric cancer patients survival after 5 years?

Abstract

PurposeThe aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the eighth AJCC TNM staging classification for patients with gastric cancer who had already survived for 5 years. Patients and methodsPatients who underwent radical gastrectomy at a large eastern center were considered. The prognostic value of staging systems were assessed and compared. Additional external validation was performed using a dataset from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database. ResultsThe 5-year overall survival (OS) rate for patients in the training set was 59.4%. With the prolongation of the survival time after surgery, the 5-year OS improved significantly (P < 0.05). However, there were no significant differences in survival curves among patients who have survived 5 years after surgery. The AUC and χ2 of the eighth AJCC classification for predicting of 5-year OS decreased gradually after surgery and appeared stable after 5 years. For patients who survived 5 years after surgery, we constructed a new TNM staging system (nTNM) according to the survival curves of T stage and N stage. A 2-step multivariate analysis showed that nTNM, age and sex were independent prognostic factors. The nTNM demonstrated superior prognostic stratification, with higher c-statistic and likelihood ratio chi-square scores and lower AIC values than those of the AJCC classification. Similar results were observed in the external validation set. ConclusionThe nTNM predicted an additional survival more accurately than did the AJCC classification for patients who have survived 5 years after surgery; this may guide decisions regarding surveillance.